Monday, November 7, 2011

Monday Afternoon QB - BCS Title Game Speculation Edition

I'm a little late getting this out, but there was a lot to process this weekend and I was distracted all day yesterday with the Falcons and then monitoring my fantasy teams. And also napping. Lots of napping.

First, let's go ahead and address the big one, LSU-Bama. I really enjoyed watching this game. Suffocating defense and an entire contest turning on special teams. It was truly old school-style football out there, but with a modern twist: those are by far the fastest and hardest hitting players in the nation. To me, even considering the kicking mishaps, Saban lost the game when he called the wildcat pass downfield. I'm not saying it wasn't a good call, I'm just saying that it's the play the conclusion of the game turned on. At that point, LSU looked tired up front and Richardson was beginning to loosen them up for more ypc. If Saban keeps plugging away, the Tide most likely wear down the D further, let there's rest more, and even if they only get a field goal, it's unlikely LSU drives for the tie that late. Instead, with the INT , LSU gains a little momentum, puts together a drive against a less-rested Bama D and send us to OT where they trump Bama's questionable special teams. This game truly was a chess match and Miles came out ahead by playing it safe - and no one thought that would be the case.

Now there's a lot of talk about a rematch. I really wouldn't want to see one. To me, it's not fair to LSU. They've already beaten 'Bama -  on the road, mind you - and to make them do it again seems like the wrong call. Besides, what do we really prove if Bama pulls out a win on a neutral field in January? Nothing. You'd then need a third game somehow to truly decide the series and you're not getting it. Just treat it like a play-in game: Bama lost, they lose out on a shot. Of course, all of this is obviously predicated on both teams winning out.

Who would LSU's opponent in the SECCG be if it were today? Georgia. That's a really weak East division. The Dawgs still likely have to beat Auburn to go - unless SoCar loses at Florida - and even then, I doubt they'll pose much threat to the Bayou Bengals. LSU is almost a lock for ATL, because even if they lost to Arkansas, the SEC tie-breaking procedure allows for them to win the division based on the fact they beat 'Bama. Unless Arkansas is within 5 BCS spots when it happens...

Of the other two unbeatens, I like Stanford right now. Okie State still looks like they've got a loss coming their way Sooner or later (get it?). If Stanford falls to Oregon and OU wins Bedlam, you'll most likely get the Sooners in the BCSCG against LSU. That seems like one of the more boring potential NC match-ups, honestly. Of course, there's always Boise State. If Georgia made it to the SECCG and won, the Broncos would have a VERY solid argument for the title game; likely playing Oklahoma. Who they beat in the Fiesta Bowl a few years ago. Ooh, the drama.

Obviously, if Stanford wins out, they'd trump a one-loss Oklahoma team. But, if the Cardinal win out and Okie State takes care of business in Bedlam, the Cowboys would get the nod over Luck and Co. to play LSU. If LSU drops the ball somewhere, you get Stanford - OKSU. If they all lose one, you could still get Alabama back in the title game, maybe against a then one-loss OU or even undefeated Boise State. Then Michael Wilbon could put his money where his mouth is.

No comments:

Post a Comment