I've been thinking a lot about next season and mentally revising and restoring (and then re-revising) my top-10 from last week. Well, I finally realized that I can use this blog to sort-of 'think out loud' about all this until I can hammer down a more polished and finite top-25 some time in August.
I'm standing by most of my top 10 (or, at least 5), and here's why:
1 and 2:
Florida is one of the most obvious preseason #1's in recent memory. Harvin's their only real loss, and one that can be easily patched with all the speed stocked up down there. Tebow's back and, this bears numerous repeating, Strong has every defensive player back on the entire 2 DEEP!. Now, hopefully, the new off-season offensive re-working won't hinder what comes naturally to St. Timothy and Meyer's game plan. If that transition goes smoothly, Florida might run the table through the regular season.
The Achilles Heel for this team is not it's talent, roster, or coaching. It's the brutal conference in which they play. The Gators very easily could (and probably will) lose a game in the meat grinder of SEC ball while Texas and Ohio State could roll through their slates unscathed, dropping the Gators to the Sugar Bowl.
Texas is, in my opinion, the most natural choice for the BCS game outside the Gators. This idea is nothing new as almost everybody has them picked in this spot, but the reasoning I'm seeing is just wrong minded. Many a pundit is talking up the 'Horns chances 'because OU is down.' my thing is, Who gives a shit if Oklahoma is down? Have we all forgotten that Texas beat the Sooners last season? They should have gotten the Big 12 CG nod last season and they'll be on a revenge run this year with McCoy at the helm behind a great O-line. All they need is a little defense to squash the shootouts that have recently become en vogue in this conference and they should be home free.
3, 4 and 5:
Speaking of Texas, remember how close they came to losing to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl? With Pryor securely at in charge, this team will be big trouble. I think they could knock off SC in Columbus (remember Texas a few years back?), run the B10 past PSU and challenge Texas and Florida for the Title. They're kind of in an opposite spot from Texas, in that all that they need is an offense to win a league that has recently become quite defensive.
Why do I have Ohio State ranked ahead of USC? See above. I think this is a good year to pick against the Trojans in a big game as they go on the road to a feisty Bucks squad. But they'll still cream Notre Dame and make a run for the title themselves.
Earlier I discussed an Achilles heel for Florida and here it is: LSU. According to my crystal ball, these teams will meet twice and the Tigers will probably take one of them. While everybody else picks Ole Miss or Bama to win the West, I fall back on my regular fave and pick the Bengals of Baton Rouge. It will come down to the 11/7 showdown with the Tide, but Miles and Co. will want revenge for the OT loss. It will be bigger than Saban this time and the Tigers should be business as usual in '09.
What Else?:
Oklahoma. This is a tough call. I mean, they're Oklahoma for fuck's sake and could just as easily steam through the league as Texas. But...I'm worried about their defense and O-line. they got gouged for points time and again last season and have lost a lot up front. I honestly think they'll lose at least 2 games, a dramatic, close call to Texas and a shootout to T.Tech or State.
I think I have VA Tech this high because I suffer from the pre-season disease most of us do: "Why shouldn't the ACC champion be in the top-10" disorder. So, I put them at 7. But in reality, I'm not confident on this one. I think their D will be as stout as ever, but what does that mean? The game with Bama will be a loss -a closer one than we think right now,though - and they'll drop 2 or so more (like maybe b2b against UNC and GT). So, they shouldn't be this high after all, I guess.
Here's one Steele and I actually agree on - Cal. I believe the Bears will have close calls with Oregon and SC, beat up the softer PAC-10 teams en route to a late show down with Oregon State and finish 10-2 behind Jahvid Best (Heisman Hype-full).
Don't Sleep On:
Alabama might have the best defense in all of CFB this season. That's a great weapon to have and my preference in the timeless O vs. D debate. However, the losses on offense will cost them in big games (LSU) and I see them as a s0lid #2 in the West.
I think the Big-10 might be in a little upswing this season. The Bucks look poised for another title run and Penn State looks to be running right along with them. Clark and Royster broke out last season and should carry a very dangerous offense through a pretty easy schedule. Like the SEC West, I see the B10 being decided on 11/7 (v. OSU).
Why's and Why Not's:
Why am I the lone prognosticator not drinking the kool-aid on Ole Miss? Because I know SEC football and Houston Nutt. What Ole Miss did down the stretch was nice, but without beating UF, they're no where near this heralded. I mean, what else did they do? Beat a collapsing LSU team and exposed the truth about Texas Tech? Big. Whoop. They also lost to Vandy, SoCar, and Wake early. You can argue close losses all you want, but I see more of the same this year and 8-4 will not do the princess as proud in '09. The Rebs will be 3rd in the West.
Notre Dame will finish 10-3. They have one of the most inexcusably easy schedules in D1 and enough returning players not to fuck it up. Clausen and a mature O-line could actually play their way out of a wet paper bag this year and that's all they'll really have to do for us to give them a BCS game. They'll be sandbagged by someone early and murdered by SC to reach 10 wins in the RS before being matched-up against a much better team in a big bowl...where they'll be re-murdered by whoever they play.
Who's the best non-BCS team? IMO, it's gotta be TCU. Everybody's riding BYU again this year, but don't buy it; take the Horned Frogs. Utah's down and the Cougs will be battered by their non-conf (OU, FSU) before the 10/24 match up with TC.
Lastly, I'll admit that Oregon was a stretch in the top-12. I was reaching a bit...but it's not impossible. I know the new coach and minimal returning starters are big warning signs, but we've seen the Ducks do more with less in the past. That, and I needed a #12.
Closer to Home:
What about Georgia being that high? Well, it's an odd numbered year which makes things easier for us schedule wise in the conference and no one's really looking at us as a contender, all of which plays right into Richt's hands. Stafford and Moreno are big losses, but we always have QB's and RB's in the stable and the D should be tighter (as long as Martinez has reinforced the radical defensive idea of 'tackling' this off season). If we go 10-3 this season, it'll be a surprise to most, but not me.
Comments, concerns, questions? You know what to do.
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