Round three of the conference round-ups take us to Big 12 country. Just like the SEC, we'll take it a division at a time. Unlike the SEC, which has a healthy trade-off between East and West dominance, the Big 12 has been ruled by it's southern division, two teams in particular: Oklahoma and Texas. To make it worse, as soon as Nebraska looks like they're coming back to prominence, the league begins crumbling, with the Huskers headed to the Big Ten. Ph well, more on that in the B12 North addition.The Big 12 South Champion will be...Oklahoma: The Sooners' '09 season fell apart after Bradford went down, but that will help them this year. How? Landry Jones. If he hadn't had to step up last season, he'd be grossly inexperienced coming in to 2010. Instead, he's started 10 games and helms an offense with 8 returning starters and a MUCH improved o-line. And, DeMarco Murray should finally be healthy and as it stands right now, if he remains injury free, he's a legitimate FTS Heisman candidate. This offensive strength is why I'm ultimately giving OU the nod over Texas. Defensively, the Sooners will be good, but Texas will still be top dog there. Oklahoma only returns 5 on that side, so expect a slide from 3rd overall in the Big12 to somewhere closer to the middle of the pack. Schedule wise, the Sooners don't have cakewalk, but Cicny won't be as tough as in '09, Florida State comes to Norman, and Nebraska's off the slate. Call it 8-0 and a division crown.
2. Texas - It was vary hard to pick against the Longhorns, but int he end, experience will carry OU past Texas. And not just at QB: according to Phil Steele's formulas, Texas ranks 108th nationally in returning experience. McCoy was the winningest QB in cfb, so he'll never be replaced, but it would be nice if there was a proven RB to take pressure off of Gilbert and the O-line was a touch more seasoned. Defensively, the Horns might be the best in the nation as they return 8 to a unit that topped the Big12 and finished 3rd behind 'Bama and Florida. Even if they returned half that, Muschamp would have them in fighting shape, so watch the D to carry a game or two. Texas gets a bye week between the RRR and Nebraska, so they'll split them en route to a 7-1 finish in league play. While I have them losing to OU, it's not a given by any means. All that is a given is that the winner of that game will be division champ.
3. Texas A&M - Watch for a breakout year in College Station. The Aggies fielded the league's second-best offense last year and, using the UGA paradigm, there's no way the defense will be as bad as '09's last in conference rating. Now, I'm not calling for A&M to challenge OU for the division, but you never know about that tilt with Texas and the rest of the schedule sets up well for the Aggies to improve on last year's 6 wins. Jerrod Johnson, Christie Michael, and the leading receivers all return as does most of the line; they will continue to put up points and yards. The defense returns 9 and should be more comfortable and confident. I know it's a bit of a limb, but I'll call for 5-3 in league and maybe even a New Year's Bowl.
4. Texas Tech - There's a lot of talk about how bad this situation is for Tuberville, but on the surface, it'll be barely noticeable. Think about it: How did leach do here? Pretty much 3rd or 4th in the division every year. Watch Tubs do the same thing, despite using the Dread Cap'n's recruits and changing his pass happy system. Tech returns a healthy 14 players, but it won't mean much with new systems on both sides of the ball. Thank god the rest of this division's going to be bad enough to make TT look OK his first year at 4-4 in league.
5 - Oklahoma State - Things will be rough in Stillwater this year. The Cowboys are dead last in returning experience: 4 on offense, 4 on defense, and twelve combined starts across the O-line. Ouch. Remember all those names you heard last year off this team? Well, they're gone. All of them. I think the Pokes can beat Baylor and K-State, but the rest of the South and Nebraska are probable losses. Call Kansas a toss-up and OSU goes 3-5.
6. Baylor - I really want to pick the bears ahead of OKState, but I just can't. Despite the lack of returning experience in Stillwater, they still have better athletes to draw from...except at QB. I put all my faith in Robert Griffin last year and he went down to a season-ender in week 3 before the Bears limped home with one conference win. That will improve this year, but not much. Griffin does come back, but I'm not betting on him to carry this whole team, at least not until next year. The schedule is rough, with no bye-weeks, but if Griffin stays healthy, look for an upset or two, maybe even enough to pull them out of the cellar.
Big Games:
1. Red River Rivalry - Obvious.
2. Texas at Nebraska - A rematch of the '09 B12CG and chance for Nebraska to punctuate their farewell to this league. That scrapped "Beat Texas" video clip will certainly make it's way across Austin airwaves this season.
3. Texas at Texas A&M - A trap game and season-ending, in-state rivalry could have huge repercussions.
4. Oklahoma St. at Oklahoma - ditto.
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