Thursday, July 8, 2010

Steele Toe-to-Toe, Part 2

Phil Steele's at it again today, picking the first five games mentioned on his wall. From what I can tell, it's going to be OU-Texas, Arkansas-Georgia, Arkansas-'Bama, Oregon St.-TCU, and Mich.-ND. I'm working up my picks and I'll post 'em along with the King Pigskin Prognosticator's later today.

1. Oklahoma vs Texas, Oct 2nd

Last year OU had a 311-269 yard edge despite losing QB Bradford on the 2nd series to injury and playing with an inexp OLine. I needed Texas to win that game and had to sweat that out start to finish and felt fortunate to come away with the 3 point win. OU now is the team with the more veteran QB. Texas slight edge on D, OU has the edge on offense and special teams. Oklahoma 24 Texas 21.


Honestly, I wouldn't label either of these kids as "veterans" in this game. Jones has played more games and Gilbery ahs BCS Title time, but the RRR is a whole different animal. Call it for the Sooners, 21-20 with a big TO or ST play making the difference.

2. Arkansas at Georgia, Sept 18th

Last year the Hogs had a great situational edge as they were off a bye with basically the whole months of August and Sept to prep for GA and and the Dogs were off a tough trip to Okla St and a tough HG vs SCar and playing a 3rd straight week. GA won 52-41 on the road (Ark led 21-10). Ark... has the more veteran QB but Dogs at home and pull out a tight one. GEORGIA 37-33

At first, I wanted to call this close, but the more I thin about it, I'm leaning more and more heavily towards Georgia. It'll be in ATH and, while the Dawgs will be coming off SoCar, I think they'll be ready. The defense and TO margin cannot be worse this year than in '09(more on that in the UGA preseason piece), and the QB situation might be improved. Throw in a striong running game and more playmakers and it comes down to containing (or at least outscpring) Mallet. Georgia, 34-23.

3. Alabama at Arkansas, Sept 25th.

Last year Ark went all out vs GA and lost and were flattened by Bama the next week with Mallett struggling on the road all year and he was facing a Tide secondary with 7 of thier top 8 back. This year 7 of the top 8 are gone and Bama's young secondary will take on their first exp QB of the year and Ark is at home. This one could be an upset special but for now.. ALABAMA 31-30


I might want to re-pick this later, but I'm pretty sure 'Bama wins walking away. I wanted to pick Arkansas on the reasoning that the Tide might be looking ahead to Florida, but I just can't. Not yet, anyway. Tide, 30 - 20.

4. Oregon St vs TCU, Sept 4th.

Arlington Texas is not a neutral site. Three things have been very consistent under Mike Riley. 1. They usually finish higher in the Pac 10 than what I forecast 2. Exp'd QB'd fare much better than 1st year QB's in his system 3. Ore St struggles on the road the first month of the season. TCU is legit and will be sky high for a BCS conf foe led by a 1st year QB. TCU 27-13


I was as on the TCU wagon as you could get without being a Horned Frog last year and they let me down in the Fiesta Bowl. The D played well, as it always does, but the offense was MIA. Steele's roght about the Beavs on the road early, though. They haven't played well in an away game in September in over 5 years. This year, though, with USC and Oregon's troubles, I have Oregon State picked as an outside conference title contender and they return 15 starters...so here's to taking a chance: Beavers 23, Frogs 16.

5. Michigan at Notre Dame, Sept 11th.

There have been 6 straight outright upsets when these two meet in South Bend! UM is just 2-8 in road openers. LY MIch got a TD with :11 left to pull the upset at home. It is my #3 Most Improved Tm vs my #5 MIP tm. UM rates a slight edge on offense while ND has the defense and home edges. Notre Dame 31-27

Not a game I would have chosen to pick, but, what are you gonna do? I'm taking the Wolverines to make it 2 in a row, knocking off the Irish in South Bend. I think the Kelly system will barely be clicking and (despite their own issues) Michigan will be together enough to exploit that. We need to get past South Bend as a great home team advantage; it hasn't been in 5 years - just ask Navy. It'll be close, rather pedestrian, and somewhat boring until the 4th quarter: Michigan 29-28.

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