I'll be glad when this league gets their divisions and championship game. Right now, with teams missing two league members from the schedule every year, and no way to consolidate the standings like the 12-team leagues do, it makes it hard to predict order of finish. The only certainty for me is Ohio State running the table next year...beyond that, I did the best I could:
The Big Ten champion will be...Ohio State. This one's pretty simple. I believe it's Pryor's breakout season, especially if that Rose Bowl performance is any indicator and he's got a full cast around him, including nine starters and 93 starts across the O-line. Even with some key defensive personal gone, the Buckeyes return their top-two tacklers and should maintain their hold on the top spot.
2. Wisconsin - The Badgers have 10 starters back on a bruising offense that finished second in league play last season. They do open at UNLV (again?), and that could be a seaosn-opening shocker, but it will have zero effect on their conference standing. once they get into Big Ten play, that run game will be hard to shut down and the six starters back on D should be enough to keep it near the unit in the top 4 statistically. The biggest pit I see on the schedule is a road trip to Iowa, but even a loss there would keep the Badgers in the two spot, as I see Iowa stubbing their toe somewhere late.
3. Penn State - This one's pretty simple, too. The Nits avoid Wisconsin on the schedule and I don't see any way they're losing to Iowa three years in a row. Beyond that, the offense won't lose too much from last year's league leading unit, as they return eight, including RB Royster. The defense only gets back five, so they should slip from the top-3, but outside of Ohio State, I don't see anything that looks like a definite loss. Since it's the Big Ten, I'll say they could drop a screwy game late, like maybe Michigan State. Still, 6-2 gets you third place here.
4. Iowa - Sorry, Hawkeyes, there's just not enough voodoo. This could be the best defense in the conference next season, but the offense just can't re-create the same amount of sheer luck as they did in '09. Remember that offensively, Iowa finished tenth in the league statistically last year. QB Stanzi is back, but not much else, as only 36 starts returning along the line. Schedule wise, they draw all the big boys, missing Illinois and Purdue. Add it all up, and I see three conference losses. However, I see that same number for teams four and five here, so it still means a high finish in the pecking order.
5. Northwestern - The Wildcats return 13 total starters. That's not great, but it's not too bad, either. What is great for N-Dub, is getting to miss Ohio State. Honestly, the Buckeyes are the only opponent I see as a guaranteed loss in this league, as depth and parity
have clawed their way back into this league. Don't be surprised if the 'Cats open 8-0, but don't jump on the band wagon, either. All three of their conference losses will be in the last month: at PSU, hosting Iowa, and the season-ender at Wisconsin.
6. Michigan State - Like Northwestern, Sparty avoids Ohio State in league play. Also like Northwestern, Sparty gets 13 total starters back. How I decided who to rank where came down to the head-to-head on 10/30, and I'm taking Northwestern. An upset at Iowa or Penn State could bump State up a peg or two, but I see losses in those two games as well. However, I think there's a realistic shot that the Spartans could knock off Wisconsin on Oct. 2. It just might not be enough to counter the losses.
7. Michigan - OK, RichRod, you let me down here. I envisioned you shaking up the Big Ten like Spurrier did the SEC in the early 90's. Instead, you've won 8 games total in two seasons and your program seems to be falling apart around you. I think 2010 could be the year the offense finally clicks, with Forcier returning and the athletic Denard Robinson a great change of pace mix-in. Look for the Wolverines to put up the most points that they've scored in years. Defensively, Big Blue gets 8 returning and their second leading tackler, so we should see some improvement over last year's performance. While it won't be enough to compete for the conference title, it should be enough to get to a bowl.
8. Minnesota - I want to gamble on the Gophers again...I like the returning experience on offense (9 starters and 114 starts on the O-line), but the defense only gets two back - the safeties. Breaking in all new D-lines and LB corps is not my definition of fun. I do see the Gophers outscoring Illinois and Purdue, but drawing all the big boys will have them home for Christmas.
9. Purdue -The truth? This was the last spot left after I put everyone else where I thought they'd finish. They avoid PSU and Iowa, but eben that might not be enough toget them to a bowl. They could snipe a team or two from the middle of the pack (they always seem to), but I'm doubting it.
10. Indiana - Why am I picking them over Illinois? Because they're not coached by Ron Zook...j/k...kinda. In reality, they get back nine on offense, which could be enough to counter what's going to be a terrible defense. Now, I don't see Indiana bowling this year, but I do see them ruining Illinois' homecoming game...and likely sending Zook to the classifieds.
11. Illinois - ZOOK'd.
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