Conference Blast - The SEC West

There are some trends in this division carrying over from last season. Just like last year, Alabama will be the best team in the division and, just like last year, there's a team in the west that everybody is drooling over as a surprise contender...and, just like last year, I ain't buying it. In '09 it was Ole Miss, who was supposed to win the SEC West and contend in ATL. This year it's Arkansas. And while the prognosticators aren't picking the Hogs to win the division, they're everybody's surprise team "darling." Well, the Rebels went 4-4 last year and I see the same thing in Fayetteville's future. But before we get there, let's get the easy part out of the way.


The West Champion will be...Alabama. This is pretty easy. The only weakness is that only 2 starters return to the defense. But, last year, they only had 4 back on offense and actually improved. Now, I'm not saying that'll happen this year for Smart's squad, but I am saying that this is a program that does not seem to ever regress. Arkansas and South Carolina could be toe-stubbing road games - and those trips book end a home tilt with Florida - but 'Bama will find a way through. What might take its toll is the six of Alabama's SEC opponents will be coming off a bye, which could result in a loss, maybe two. So, while I might not take the Tide all the way to the BCS Title game, I will take them all the way to Atlanta.

Side-note: Really, Alabama? Georgia State? It's their first year and you bring them into Tuscaloosa? For shame.

Upset Special: On the road at South Carolina - it's just like whenever an East team has to hit Fayetteville...it just sneaks up on you.

2. Auburn - I'm putting a lot of faith in the 15 returning starters and the breaks in the Tigers' schedule. Malzahn has 111 starts returning on the O-line, which should help ease the ease the transition at the RB and QB spots. And, while the offense might slip from last year's production, the defense should be greatly improved from the league's 3rd worst in '09. Overall, I hate to put this much stock in a second year coach with Chizik's record, but last year's 8 wins was a helluva a surprise and I just don't see LSU or Ole Miss taking the second spot. I'm thinking the Tigers will end up 5-3, splitting their season-enders with UGA and 'Bama.

3t. LSU - Here it is, Les Miles, your last chance - if the Bayou Bengals slip in 2010, not only will I not put my faith in my picks, but he'll be looking for a new job. There's too much talent on this team to finish lower than third in the West. Jordan Jefferson's back and they should finally get a stable running game, lifting Crowton's unit out of offensive stats cellar. The defense should hold steady under Chavis and do enough to keep the growing offense in close games. Not only that, but the schedule's nice: LSU gets a tune up with an FCS school heading into Auburn and bye before 'Bama. Of course, they could lose both of those game without anyone paying any mind, it's the end of the year that's the true measuring post. The Tigers close out with Ole Miss and Arkansas b2b. If they split those games, they could be OK, but if they drop both, especially on coaching gaffs (ahem..spike play?), they'll likely drop to 5th in the West, and Miles (and Crowton) will be packing.

3t. Arkansas - Yes, there's a 3-way tie for 3rd in the West here; I'm predicting a glut of 4-4 league records and one of those awful team a loses to team b who loses to team c who loses to team a who...well, you get it. So, what makes Arkansas so great? Nothin in particular. They do have 1o starters back on offense, including Mallet, but they can't produce much more than they did last year. The defense finished 2nd to last in '09 and I don't see much improvement on deck. Yes, Jerry Franklin is a good player, but he cannot carry the entire unit and there won't be repeat of the +15 TO's from last season. Weak defense and less big breaks equals 4-4, even with Mallet's skill and amazing offensive numbers.

5. Ole Miss -I'm guessing 4-4 for the Rebels. Why? Houston Nutt. There are only 10 returning starters, same as LSU, but Ole Miss lacks the talent depth stored in Baton Rouge. Six of the returners are on defense, three along what could be one of the league's best D-lines. Conversely, there's a paltry 22 starts coming back in the offensive trenches and Nutt will be breaking in a new QB. However, the schedule breaks favorably for the Rebs and they host State in the season ending Egg Bowl - all that should be enough to push them past the Bulldogs in the West standings.

6. Mississippi State - Not yet. But by next season, Mullen will have things right in Starkville. This year, however, the Other Bulldogs, will still be building. They're breaking in a new QB and RB, but most of the O-line returns. Defensively the line should be solid, but they're aren't any breakout players. Last season, State improved from dead last in both overall offense and defense to ninth, won 5 games, and hung in with Florida. Look for them to keep building on that, upset someone along the way to 3-5 in the SEC and a return to a bowl game.

Big Games:

Auburn at Alabama, Nov. 26 - The Iron Bowl is always big, but there;s a distinct possibility it could decide the West this year.


Florida at Alabama, Oct. 2 - This is a rematch of the last 2 SECCG's and could have post-season implications. A loss to UF could end a repeat NC campaign for the Tide and a loss in T-town could be enough to put Florida in danger of losing the East.

LSU at Arkansas, Nov. 27 - The Battle for the Boot has become an exciting season ending rivalry. This year, it most likely won't settle the top of the West, but it could go a long way towards bowl pecking order...or securing Les Miles' fate.

Arkansas at Auburn, Oct. 16 - For some reason, I think this one's gonna be a lot of fun.