Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Steele Toe-to-Toe

Keep an eye on Phil Steele's Facebook feed this week. He's decided to take requests and pick games for the upcoming season. Twice this week, he will pick the first five games mentioned on his wall. This finally got me into the spirit of the preseason, so I'll match my devastatingly inferior insight and skills against his and pick the same games. Maybe this is what I need to get into the swing of things again and write up the 2010 conference blasts.

1. Florida at Alabama, Oct 2nd.

Alabama has a young defense but just took on Ryan Mallett of Arkansas on the road last week so should be better prepared forBrantley (2nd road start). This has been the SEC title game two straight years. Both teams are Top 10 ...on both offense and defense. Give Alabama the home edge and a 30-27 win.
I thought I liked the call, but I think I can see Florida upsetting the Tide in T-town by right around the same score. Brantley will already have a hostile crowd under his belt (UT in week 3) and I see 'Bama still tweaking their D a bit.

2. Oregon at Tennessee, Sept 11th.

Tennessee has the large edge of the heat and humidity of the South vs a team from the Northwest. Oregon has the edge of having a much deeper and experienced team with 17 ret sts from LY's bowl squad. Tenn has their 3rd HC in 3 years and suffered a lot of attrition and has just 9 ret sts. UT takes it to the wire but...OREGON 27-20
Nailed it. If Oregon hadn't become the new Thug-U this off-season and lost their key starters/focus/discipline/etc., I'd call for a blowout, but the Ducks will be a still be a little scattered and the 100,00 Vols won't help.

3. Texas at Nebraska Oct 16th.
Texas has my #1 rated defense and the Huskers my #5 rated unit. This will be a low scoring hard hitting game. Last year NU came within seconds of beating the Horns and NU has an improved offense over LY while Texas has a young QB and is switching from the spread offense. Nebraska gets this one at home 17-13.
I like it, but I'm afraid Texas will bring more than that offensively. Plus, they might be coming off a loss the week before (Okl.) and I don't see the 'Horns dropping b2b games in '10. Texas, 20-10.

4. Notre Dame at USC, Nov 27th.

Forecasting this game in advance is very dicey and really depends on USC's frame of mind. If the Trojans lose 5 more players to transfer prior to the year then crumble this up and toss in trash. If they do not lose any more than they could be using an "Us against the World" mentality and have a shot at being 11-0 for this game. Call it USC 27-20 but that is with no more transfers.
Forecasting any game this early is dicey. I don't see either of these teams being 11-0 by this point, especially since the Trojans' pre-season keeps getting worse and worse. No matter what, though, USC has better talent to draw from and Kiffin's system is no different than Carrol's, while ND is trying to break in Brian Kelly's new everything. The chips are stacked against the Irish, but I'm calling an upset in LA: ND, 24-21.

5. Boise St at Virginia Tech, Sept 6th.

This is a true national title elimination game and both deserve to be in the Top 10. While this is a "neutral" site it is right in VT's back yard and Boise must fly across the country. VT has a tremendous backfield and being the lower ranked team will feel like the underdog. Last year they whipped Miami Fla in a similar situation. Virginia Tech 30-27.
I'm taking VA Tech 37-20. I'm even leaning towards a 20-point plus win on this, but that would require the Hokies to score more points than I think they can. I'm happy we get this game early, as it should help us shake out some issues: Boise probably shouldn't be considered a title contender, and neither should VA Tech if history's any indicator. So, hopefully, VT knocks Boise out of the race early and VA Tech drops its usual 2-3 down the stretch. Anyway, jet lag and a hostile crowd should do the Broncos in at Fed-Ex Field.

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