The East Champion will be...Georgia? Optimism thy name is ME. I had Florida here right up until it was time to publish this post, but at the last minute, I just couldn't keep them. So, why Georgia? Well, it's a matter of lightening not striking twice. The Dawgs had the 7th ranked D in the SEC, but they were 12th in points allowed, pass yards surrendered, and yards per play. Even with a new system being implemented, it has to be better than that this year. Which brings me to the last stat UGA was dead last in: turnovers. Not only were they 12th in the SEC, they were 119 out of 120 across the FBS. That can only get better. Now to the offense. Georgia returns 10 starters and the O-line is poised to be among the nations best (155 combined starts). They'll be blocking for an inexperienced QB in Murray, but he'll have 2 good RB's to alleviate the pressure and the run game should set up some play action to AJ Green, arguably the best WR in the nation. Throw in the best kicker and punter in cfb and a more aggressive kick-off scheme and a 6-2 league record is not out of hand. Plus, with Florida down a bit, that should be enough for the Dawgs to take the East.
Upset Special: The Dawgs better click early if they're going to get through SoCar and Arkansas b-2-b. A loss to one of these teams wouldn't be a surprise, but it also wouldn't derail the season if the ship's righted quickly.
2. Florida - With Tebow gone, Florida will be changing gears offensively and they only return five on D. While that doesn't spell disaster for the Gators, it certainly doesn't guarantee the top spot either. Brantley will be eased into the QB spot against Miami, OH to open, but USF is no push over and going to Tennessee and 'Bama in the first month won't be easy, not to mention that LSU is right behind the Tide. Brantley should do fine with the system adapted to him a bit, but the defense might lose a step, allowing teams to get closer than they could the last 2 years. The bye before Jax should help UF against UGA, but I see them dropping 3 games in what will be a bit of a rebuilding year, much like the post-Leak '07 was.
3. South Carolina - Per last year's pick: "I hate to put it all on his shoulders, but the D can only do so much to keep the Cocks competitive. If Garcia comes through and limits the turnovers, SC could top last season's 7 wins." Honestly, I feel the exact same way this year. There are 9 back on O and 7 on D, Spurrier has been a but higher on Garcia this off season, and the defense should remain solid. If that can't get them back to at least 4-4 in the league, than I don't know what can. They don't get a Mississippi school out of the west, but, once again, I'm putting my faith in the OBC at the 3rd spot.
4. Kentucky - This is another dicey call, but I'm picking the 'Cats over the Vols. UK draws both Mississippi schools from the West, along with a hard-to-peg LSU team. Beyond that, they get 3 winnable games in a row and then a bye before the season-ending rivalry game with UT. I know they lost a great deal of talent and are breaking in a new coach, but the system hasn't really changed much and Newton and Cobb will do enough to keep the offense competitive. Big Limb: Kentucky beats Tennessee, finally, after 25 years.
5. Tennessee - Only 13 combined starts return across the O-line (compared to UGA's SEC best 155). Ouch. It gets worse: Three returning starters on the offense and six on D. Last year, Tennessee was the definition of middle-of-the-pack, finishing sixth in the SEC in overall offense and defense. They won't even be that good this year with all the attrition and a new coach. The Vols do get a bye before 'Bama, but the first half of the schedule doesn't break well for UT, with Florida, UGA, and LSU in league and the big non-conf. with Oregon. In the end, I think it will be harder for Tenn. to get back to a bowl than UK.
6. Vanderbilt - I'm afraid the 'Dores are heading into a 1-11 meat grinder this year..and that 1 won't be in the SEC. While they return most of their skill players, the O-line's bringing a scant 20 combined starts and only five players come back on D. That does not add up to improvement and Vandy was already dead last in almost everything last year. Needless to say, it could be a long season in Music City.
Big Games:
Florida at Alabama, Oct. 2 - This is a rematch of the last 2 SECCG's and could have post-season implications. A loss to UF could end a repeat NC campaign for the Tide and a loss in T-town could be enough to put Florida in danger of losing the East.
Georgia - Florida (Jax.), Oct. 30 - This will likely decide the SEC East.Georgia at South Carolina, Sept. 11 - This is always a tone-setter. A loss here could derail either team's hopes of a great season. It's been decided by 7 or less points 4 of the last 5 years and Spurrier still gets a kick out of kicking the Dawgs when he can.
Arkansas' trips to UGA and USC: While I'm not on the Hawgs' bandwagon, they could certainly be a thorn in any opponents side. Whatever damage they do in these 2 trips across the Mississippi could go a long way towards shaking out the final East standings.
Kentucky at Tennessee, Nov. 27 - The winner could go bowling, while the loser at least gets to spend Christmas with the fam.
Go Dawgs! Man, I hope you are right
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