Conference Blast 5 - The PAC 10

I really want no part of picking this league for 2010. USC has been hit with all kinds of off-season drama, but still has a full cupboard. Oregon looked like an easy pick to repeat, but then their off season shenanigans muddled the picture further. It could be an opportunity to go out on a limb and make an outside call: Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State, but neither one has anything that screams conference champion. How improved will UCLA or Arizona State be? Will Washington keep building? Is it Harbaugh's time? All these questions had to be answered before I made any picks...and honestly, I'm not sure about any of the answers or conclusions I've reached. Except Washington State. They're terrible. Anyway, the PAC-10 has eight or nine honest bowl caliber teams and all are jockeying for rank in a tough conference. I did the best I could:

The PAC-10 Champ will be...Oregon - Despite the loss of Masoli, Thug-U Lite returns 9 to the offense. Even without the laptop-pilfering QB, the Ducks have 2 solid options under center, Nate Costa or Darron Thomas, either of whom could helm what's sure to be the league's best offense. Defensively, Oregon improved last season and with 8 starters back, could break the top-3 in conference. Schedule wise, things look OK for the Ducks. They get most of their tough opponents at home, but do travel to USC with the Trojans coming off a bye. I won't be surprised if they lose that game, but the men of Troy should lose a couple, so I'm still calling it 8-1 and a conference title.

2. Oregon State - Yes, once again, the Civil War could be for the Rose Bowl. The Rodgers boys are back, along with 6 other starters, creating nightmare match-ups for opposing defenses and taking pressure off of sophomore Ryan Katz. But, offense hasn't really been the problem. Last year, the defense surprised me. With 7 starters back, look for more improvement. There's really not much that separates the two Oregon teams, which makes December 4 even more important. I see the Beavers splitting b2b road games at Arizona and Washington, knocking off USC and carrying one loss into a winner-take-all Civil War. In the end, I'm taking the Ducks, but it's close.

3. USC - Wow, I cannot remember the last time the Trojans were not the obvious number one here. Honestly, though, I'm a little nervous putting them this high for 2010. I know the talent's there; they've been sticking whole classes of 5-stars for almost a decade. But, there's just been too much swirling around the program since December, and they're coming off of a VERY down year for Troy. I know the players will be motivated to get back to the top, but with Carroll gone, the figure head's gone and I just don;t think Kiffin's the man to replace him...yet. Not only that, but there's only 10total starters back and the rest of the league is catching up. Let's face it, it was the perfect time for Pete to bolt to the NFL. I think the record is better than in screwy '09, but only because the league will straighten out a bit; I'm thinking 7-2...maybe even knocking off the Ducks.

4. Stanford - Here comes the traffic jam; I see three teams vying for this 4th spot. The Cardinal loses the runner up in the closest Heisman race ever in Toby Gerhart, but sophomore QB Andrew Luck is more seasoned and should be able to handle the added pressure. He'll have an additional 7 starers back with him, including all but one of his lineman. And, I imagine Jim Harbaugh will have the other RB's ready for 2010. There's a solid seven back on D and the schedule breaks decently...I just don't like the quality in the middle of this conference. Last year, 3 teams ended up 6-3 in conference play, and I see a similar thing brewing for this year. Stanford needs to be careful at Washington and they play Oregon and USC back to back, as well as ending the season with Oregon State. I see them knocking off someone near the top, but losing to either Cal or U-Dub.

5. Cal - This where I'm going to pick Cal forever more. Low expectations? The Golden bears rip off a surprising 10 win season. High expectations? They finish 6th or 7th in the conference. So, there's no Jahvid Best for 2010, but there are 8 other back around QB Kevin Riley. Offensively, the Bears should be able to hang in most of their games. But, defensively, they look over-matched by 2/3 of the league. They finished eighth in the league statistically last year and only return 6 starters. I had them picked much lower before I remembered what Tedford does when underestimated, so call it 6-3 and right in the thick of things at the middle of the pack.

Arizona - I wanted to pick the Wildcats to win the league, but then I remembered that Nebraska Holiday Bowl. Ouch. I do like Nick Foles at QB and the eight returning starters joining him, they just can't shut down when they hit a little opposition. With the extra maturity, I don't see that being a problem. Defensively, they only return 4 to a middling unit, but they've improved every year under Stoops, so I'm not too concerned. The 'Cats draw bye weeks before both Oregon schools and host USC, but it might be asking too much for them to knock one of them off. Instead, they need to focus on b2b road trips to UCLA and Stanford, because two losses there would knock them further down the conference ladder. I see them winning 6 conferece games and possibly knocking off Iowa in the non-conf. to reach 9 wins overall.

Washington - I would have liked to put the Huskies higher, but there's too much mid-level parity. Jake Locker is a bona fide Heisman candidate and leads an incredible ten starters back on the side of the ball - which is Coach Sarkisian's specialty. The defense finished near the bottom in '09, but should be improved, with eight starters back and a better grasp on the system. Everything points to a breakout year in Seattle, but the Huskies struggle on the road and 4 of their 5 away games are against teams rated higher than them. Still, though, they'll be better tha last year's 5-7. More like 7-5, 5-4 in conference. But, don't be too surprised if they knock off a big boy or two and finish higher.

UCLA - This low finish has more to do with the conference parity than lack of faith in Neuheisel's squad. Last year, the Bruins had a very stout defense, and while they return five, I see that slipping in 2010. Offensively, all of the skill players return, but it still might not be enough to break into the top of the league. The schedule is brutal, with a tough non-conf. to open (KSU, Houston, Texas) and road trips to Cal and Oregon making it hard to get ahead in a tough conference. The season-ending loss to USC should drop the Bruins to 4-5 in conference, but UCLA could still get to a bowl.

Arizona State - Not yet, Dennis Erickson. AZ St. ranks 116 out of 120 FBS schools in returning experience, with a measly nine total starters back. The Sun Devils did lead the league in defense last year, but that bright spot should fade in 2010, while the offense remains just as bad, having lost almost everybody. However, 2011 could be a breakout year in Tempe.

Washington State - I'll say zero wins.