The ACC Atlantic Champion will be...Florida State - The 'Noles are a team with a new head coach, but they'll barely miss a beat in the transition. There are no new systems to learn or adapt to and, even according to the players, the ship's being run a but tighter under Jimbo. They might miss the legendary Bobby Bowden, but they won't suffer for it on the field. I'm thinking that FSU winds up with the league's best offense by season's end, as they finished second last year and return nine starters, including QB Christian Ponder. While I don't buy the Heisman hype, I will buy him as th ebest in the league, edging out Miami's Jaclyn Harris. The 'Noles do take a hit schedule wise, drawing Miami and UNC, but even losing both those games would leave State number one in their own division. I'll bank on a split and call it 7-1 in conference with tix to Charlotte in December.
2. Clemson - The defending Atlantic-champ Tigers are not a great team, but they don't have to be to finish second in their division in 2010. They draw the same tough cross-div. tandem as FSU in Miami and UNC, but also add Georgia Tech. They'll struggle with Boston College and Florida State, too, but I can't see them losing more than 3 of these games. They only lost one player on the O- and D-lines, so they should be able to control the trenches in close games and their overall experience will allow them to maintain late in the 4th against tough opponents. In the end, it's the win over Boston College that I see lifting them into second place over the Eagles, who should have a similar record.
3. Boston College - BC returns eight starters on offense, but the skill players will need to lift their game to move the Eagles beyond their 8th place finish as a unit in 2009. The true strength of this offensive unit will lie with the O-line, which returns 108 combined starts and should allow time for the offense to find themselves and take pressure of QB Dave Shinskie. The defense was down last year and only brings back six starters, but it will never be a weakness on Chestnut Hill. Look for solid, conservative play to push BC past the inferior competition across the league, but maybe leave them a bit short against more athletic teams like FSU, Clemson, or VA Tech.
4. Maryland - What? I honestly thought the Terps would be my cellar dweller again, but looking at the info, it seems things might improve a bit in College Park. It honeslty does not have as much to with anything Maryland's doing right than with what will go wrong with Wake and NC St. They return seven on offense, but lost their QB and the O-line's only got 38 combines starts. Defensively, they bring back 5, but shouldn't move up too much from 10th place. What they do have is a nice schedule that finds them playing Duke and Virginia from the Coastal. I'll count them both as wins, as well as home tilts with Wake and State. I don't see them upsetting any of the bigger guys on their slate (FSU, Clemson, BC, Miami), but 4-4 in league might open a door to a bowl.
5. Wake Forest - Jim Grobe is a good coach, but it takes time to build success at a place like Wake - it might be 5-6 years between nine-win seasons. Certainly don't look for it in 2010. They have 13 total starters back on units that finished in the middle of the pack, both offensively and defensively. They lost QB Skinner and their top tackler and only have 45 starts on the O-line, so they'll fall behind early against tougher opponents and it'll be a struggle to stay in some games with flashier offenses. They drew GA Tech and VA Tech out of the Coastal and won't make much noise in the Atlantic. A 3-5 or 2-6 record is highly likely, but they could sneak into a bowl with good non-conf. play.
6. North Carolina State - I thought about picking the 'Pack 4th or 5th, but just couldn't get past the schedule. They play GA Tech, VA Tech, and UNC from the Coastal and might not fare much better against their own divisional foes. I do see them upsetting a team or two, but it'll be a stretch to get out of the cellar.
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