Wednesday, November 18, 2009

This is going to be the worst BCS ever (ed. note: OR IS IT?)

UPDATE FROM JOAJ34: Well, Aroo stole my thunder by posting his BCS projections/opinions today, as I was planning on doing the same this week. That said, it's always great to have someone besides me get some input, so I'll just throw in with his post and drop my projections in below. I'll leave Aroo's writing in tact and just interject my thoughts. For style and ease of reading, my picks will be in red:

If the season ended today (and in MY best estimation)

National Championship: Florida/Bama vs. Texas

Strong! I dont want any part of picking this game.

Ditto. I will go ahead and say that I'll take Florida over 'Bama, though. And, if I have to pick Fla vs. Texas, I'll take the Gators. Why? We saw Texas manage a season-low 16 points against a tough, athletic defense (OU) earlier this year. I think the Gators' D is actually tougher than the Sonners' D and with Tebow at the helm, the offense always seems to do enough to win big games. McCoy, on the other hand, seems to tighten up, which could cost the 'Horns late.

Sugar Bowl: Florida/Bama vs. TCU

While I think this could be a great game, a tough loss by either Florida or Bama in the SEC Championship Game could prove a major bust to motivation for their BCS game.

With the Orange Bowl getting the next pick from the at-large teams, I think they'll pick TCU. The Fiesta would take Boise St. with the 2nd pick and then the Sugar would be left a default SEC 2nd place and the Big East Champion. So, we're looking at 'Bama vs. Cincy, which is still a match-up that could be a lot of fun. Honestly, to me, wherever Cincy plays, with that offense, could be fun. Not only that, but don't expect 'Bama to be unmotivated twice in a row...

Orange Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech

Easily the best of the non championship games. Two up and coming underdogs both trying to finish up great seasons. I actually am holding out hope that Cincy goes undefeated so BCS naysayers have more to gripe about on Capital Hill this offseason.

So, using my logic from the Sugar Bowl above, I would say that this would end up being GA Tech and TCU. To me, that's still an interesting match-up. Maybe not as much potential fun as the triple-option vs. the air raid spread, but how will a tough disciplined D like the Frogs hold up against the Jackets? And, the Tech D has been suspicious at times and could find itself susceptible to the read-options and roll-outs TCU runs. Throw in the special teams and turnover margins and this could be a GREAT game for fundamental football. Not only that, but Patterson will be in discussion for almost every big-time coaching opening in the off-season and this game could go a long way to padding his resume.

Fiesta Bowl: Boise St vs. Oklahoma St?

Is this the best that we can offer the Broncos? A chance to win bragging rights in the state of Oklahoma?

I do like Boise here, but I do not think OK St will make it. I think the Pokes drop a season-ender to OU, putting them out of the BCS pool and opening the door for the 3-way glut of 2-loss Big 10 teams. Iowa is currently the highest ranked of these teams, but Penn State and Wisconsin are creeping, all in the top-16 of the BCS (and most likely top-14 by season's end). Without Stanzi, Iowa might lose to Minnesota, but probably not, and since the Hawkeyes have head-to-head wins over both the Nits and Badgers, this is where they'd most likely land.

So, Fiesta Bowl: Boise State and Iowa. Honestly, with Stanzi back by then and the RB corp healed up, I'll take Iowa. Sure the Broncos will have 500 yards of offense, but turnovers, safeties, special teams, lightening, prayer and the force will push the Hawkeyes over 19-18.

Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon St vs. Ohio St

The winner of Civil War vs. an overrated Ohio State team with 2 losses? Boring!

I'd love to say Stanford will make it to Pasadena, but too much needs to happen for that be the case. Arizona contorls it's own destiny, but their back stretch is too tough to run undefeated. That leaves us with the Civil War. Really, if the Ducks beat 'Zona, they could drop the CW and still go to the Rose Bowl. But, I don't think they lose either game. So, Ducks and Bucks it is, and I honestly don't see how it's boring. Let's not forget Ohio State's Fiesta Bowl last year, taking Texas to the wire in a surprisingly-fun-to-watch showdown. I also think Masoli's development into a top-notch QB will give us enough fireworks to make this Rose Bowl worth the watch.

Ultimately here there are only two losers: LSU and the fans

LSU deserves a BCS game after being the best two loss team in the country, and by having those two losses come in very competitive games against 2 of the big 3.

The fans deserve more. And rather than reiterate the same top 8 team BCS playoff jargon that we hear annually, here is what I propose: Any team within a BCS conference that has 0 or 1 loss during the regular season (not including conference championship game) and any non BCS school that goes undefeated should make a playoff for the national championship. Some years you have more teams, some you would have less. This way teams that truly deserve spots would earn the chance.

As of today, we would have 7 teams (possibly 8 if Pitt beats Cincy) playing for all of the marbles, using the BCS for seeding. The BCS need not be fully abandoned as teams will still be working for the coveted first round home playoff game.

GT, Boise, and TCU also still have to win out but it would set up matchups as follows:

8 Pitt @ 1 Florida/Bama
5 Cincinnati @ 4 TCU
6 Boise @ 3 Florida/Bama
7 GT @ 2 Texas

(If Pitt lost to Cincy, Florida would get a first round bye)

All four games are a better watch than the ones above because they all will mean something. Not tomention, how important would the Cincinnati-Pitt game become? Plus, I'd like to see the 2nd round matchups take place in traditional BCS sites with the championship rotating annually. What are your thoughts?

Aroo's idea isn't bad, but all the talk in the world won't change things before Bowl Season. What I will take issue with here is Aroo's title for this post: "This is going to be the worst BCS ever." Ever? Really? I'd like to submit 2007 as evidence to the contrary. You had 2 games with double digit spreads (USC over Illinois and UGA over Hawaii), Kansas matched up with VA Tech (instead of the more entertaining WVU), and two 2-loss teams in the Title game; not to mention that one of those teams was Ohio State. If Ohio State is so "Boring!", why do we prefer years they were in the title game?

1 comment:

  1. Maybe Aroo and me should take this thing to the radio waves?